Expected Value
If you did not know already, Porg Depot has a tool for knowing the expected value of the contents of a sealed box of SWU. You can find this information on the Porgonomics Page and also on its own Box EV Page.
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) is a statistical calculation used to determine the average value of return a person can expect to receive from opening a sealed product. In the context of trading card games, it is the sum of the values of all possible cards in a set, each multiplied by the probability of pulling that specific card.
For collectors and players, EV serves as a benchmark to compare the cost of a sealed box against the average value inside. It is important to remember that EV is an average. Individual boxes will fluctuate, and those fluctuations can sometimes be massive. However across hundreds of boxes, the total value will trend toward a median EV number.
How Does Porg Depot Calculate EV?
At Porg Depot, we believe in providing a realistic and conservative look at your potential pulls. We follow a specific set of modeling rules in an effort to ensure our data is as clean and actionable as possible.
Market Price Over Lowest Listed: We use TCGPlayer’s Market Price for our calculations. This prevents short term price spikes or outlier listings from skewing the data. Using Market Price also ensures that cards that may not even have a listing are still assigned a fair value.
The Common/Uncommon Question: Our model does NOT currently include Commons or Uncommons. Cards in these rarities have not historically moved the needle enough to justify their inclusion. There are instances with cards like Aggressive Negotiations hitting the $5+ range that would impact the actual EV of a sealed box, but we feel that for now excluding those makes the most sense and keeps the calculations on the conservative side. Note: We are actively monitoring community opinion on whether Uncommons should be integrated into the model.
Trends Over Totals: While the dollar amount is the headline, the most valuable part of our EV tools are the trend analysis. We track whether a set’s value is tightening or expanding and how the spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles (the “luck gap”) is moving over time.
Odds and Set Logic
This is a detailed look at the odds we are currently using for EV modeling calculations.
As FFG has not ever released the odds of pulling cards in full, these are approximations based on the best available information. Some of this has been revealed piecemeal on official stream, other data came from the “A Shift From What Was” post on the official website, and some are our best guesses based on community information from actual product openings.
2024 Sets (SOR, SHD, TWI)
| Rarity / Variant | Drop Rate (Per Pack) |
|---|---|
| Rare Normal | 1-in-1.1 |
| Rare Foil | 1-in-12 |
| Rare Hyperspace | 1-in-24 |
| Rare Hyperspace Foil | 1-in-72 |
| Legendary Normal | 1-in-8 |
| Legendary Foil | 1-in-36 |
| Legendary Hyperspace | 1-in-48 |
| Legendary Hyperspace Foil | 1-in-145 |
| Showcase | 1-in-286 |
2025 Sets (JTL, LOF, SEC)
| Rarity / Variant | Drop Rate (Per Pack) |
|---|---|
| Rare Normal | 1-in-1.25 |
| Rare Foil | 1-in-12 |
| Rare Hyperspace | 1-in-21 |
| Rare Hyperspace Foil | 1-in-72 |
| Legendary Normal | 1-in-5 |
| Legendary Foil | 1-in-36 |
| Legendary Hyperspace | 1-in-53 |
| Legendary Hyperspace Foil | 1-in-181 |
| Showcase | 1-in-286 |
2026 Sets (LAW)
| Rarity / Variant | Drop Rate (Per Pack) |
|---|---|
| Rare Normal | 1-in-1.25 |
| Rare Hyperspace | 1-in-12 |
| Rare Hyperspace Foil | 1-in-24 |
| Legendary Normal | 1-in-5 |
| Legendary Hyperspace | 1-in-48 |
| Legendary Hyperspace Foil | 1-in-96 |
| Prestige (Level 1) | 1-in-18* |
| Showcase | 1-in-288 |
*Currently excluded from EV model due to active bug.
The “Double Hit” Scenario
One of the most common questions we get is whether a single pack can contain more than one high-value card. For example, a standard Legendary in the rare slot and a Legendary Hyperspace Foil in a 2024/2025 pack in the guaranteed foil slot.
The short answer: Yes, and our model accounts for it.
Independent Probabilities
The Porg Depot model is structured so that drop rates are applied independently per slot type, rather than as mutually exclusive outcomes. We don’t tell the math “you can only pick one hit per pack.” Instead, the formula calculates the EV by summing the independent probabilities of every possible variant.
The math naturally allows for both to exist in the same theoretical pack because the drop rates for a Standard Legendary and a Hyperspace Foil Legendary are calculated separately. This means that when we sum Price × Probability across all buckets the model is already treating each variant type as an independent chance.
These per pack probabilities help to ensure that our model is not accidentally capping the value of a box by assuming only one hit is possible per pack. If anything, as noted in our methodology, we remain conservative in our assumptions to ensure our EV estimates are a floor, not a ceiling.
Additional Notes
Note on LAW Prestige Cards: As of April 15, 2026, we are investigating a bug regarding Prestige Level 1 cards in A Lawless Time. Because these average ~1 per box and often carry lower market values, their current exclusion from the EV total is expected to have a relatively negligible impact on the overall EV Calculations
Closing Out
Hope the community finds this informative. Of course we are always happy to discussion our EV model and remain open to suggestions for improvement where it might make sense.
Ping ObiWein in Discord if you want to discuss or provide feedback.