Box Expected Value

This is a probabilistic estimation of card set display box expected value ranges based on daily market price data from TCGPlayer. The data provided here should only be used for informational purposes and should not be the determining factor in whether packs or boxes should be purchased.

Notes

Value (Return on Investment)
Value represents the theoretical Return on Investment (ROI) for opening a sealed box. It is calculated by comparing the box’s Median Expected Value (EV) against its current Market Price. A score of 100 indicates a break-even scenario where the average contents are worth exactly what you paid for the box. Scores above 90 are considered excellent, suggesting you are retaining nearly full value, while scores below 75 indicate you are paying a significant “gambler’s premium” for the experience, as the cards inside are statistically worth far less than the sealed cost.

(Median EV ÷ Market Price) × 100
< 75 (Red): Poor. The box is overpriced relative to the average value of the cards inside.
> 90 (Green): Excellent. You are retaining nearly full value (or profiting) on average.
75 – 90 (Orange): Average. You are paying a standard “entertainment premium” to open the box.

Volatility (Variance & Risk)
Volatility measures the “gamble factor” or risk profile of a set. It is defined by the spread between the High (75th percentile) and Low (25th percentile) outcomes relative to the box’s price. A high volatility score (>60) signals a “lottery ticket” scenario where outcomes swing wildly. You essentially either hit a massive jackpot or lose significantly. Conversely, a low volatility score (<30) indicates a safe, consistent experience where the total value of the cards you pull will likely be very similar regardless of which specific box you open.

((High EV – Low EV) ÷ Market Price) × 100
< 30 (Gray): Low. Very consistent. You will likely get roughly the same total value every time.
> 60 (Purple): High. A “Lottery Ticket.” Massive gap between a good box and a bad box.
30 – 60 (Blue): Moderate. Standard variance expected for a TCG box.

Other Notes:

• Data is collected daily.
• Market prices for these cards are processed and grouped by their rarity and variant, allowing for detailed analysis.
• Calculations determine the 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile of card prices.
• Drop rates are applied to each rarity and variant. The EV for each card group is calculated by multiplying the drop rate by the corresponding price percentile.
• The market price of a booster box is displayed alongside the EV results.