Porgonomics Showcase Trend Special
The Question
After we posted our normal weekly update yesterday on showcase prices a great question was asked on Reddit…
“What’s the history on when showcases from new sets start to stabilize?” ~ u/makaveli-8
We realized that there is enough data available from our week to week tracking that we could help answer this question.
**Before reading ahead it’s important to note that it’d be unwise to use this data for the purpose of speculation on cards. Really just don’t do that anyway. It’s a game after all. If you want a shiny leader, go get one. They are cool.
Omissions
To start with, Porg Depot did not start tracking pricing data until late 2024. This doesn’t pose a problem because we would likely see a different outcome of the price curve over time for the sets released last year. This is primarily due to Spark of Rebellion, Shadows of the Galaxy, and Twilight of the Republic NOT having carbonite boxes available.
The addition of carbonite boxes for 2025 sets caused showcases in general to become easier to get much sooner after release due to the number of the higher end boxes being opened and flooding the market with available cards.
Data and Graph
First the actual data points if anyone is curious, but not super useful until you see the information plotted on a graph. Plus if you are on a phone, there’s almost no chance you are reading this first table anyway.
Here’s a graph of the data of the 2025 sets normalized so our first data point on the Monday following prerelease weekend is set as Week 1 regardless of the actual calendar date.
While JTL and LOF have different starting points, $239 and $176 respectively, both sets follow a very similar path.
– Both sets saw significant drops from the Monday after prerelease to the Monday after normal release.
– JTL spent 6 weeks over $100, while LOF spent 5 weeks above that mark.
– JTL spent 7 weeks in the $90’s, while LOF spent 5 weeks in the same range.
Legends of the Force showed a small blip up in week 4 which coincides with a post Galactic Championship surge. Week 5 saw it start to come back to the trend line set by Jump to Lightspeed. Then weeks 6 through 19 are nearly identical.
Secrets of Power saw a similar opening just over $220, very close to the JTL opening number. In week 2, SEC dropped just under $103.84 which is extremely similar to the JTL initial drop of just under $107. So at this point it is tracking right along with the JTL line.
One More Comparison Point
Just for kicks we also plotted out a similar graph that includes the OPP Luke and Vader showcases that were released at the Galactic Championship.
While these two leader showcases started much higher, have stayed much higher, and don’t have another 16 leaders to average them out, the trend of the data is eerily similar to the other lines.
Caveats
First, our data is of course pulled once per week for this data set. We do have more accurate daily data but not going back far enough to get more accuracy from JTL and LOF sets. However, given that the JTL and LOF price over time curves are so similar we feel somewhat confident that SEC will follow a relatively similar trend line.
Second, since we are tracking average prices of the lowest listed cards available on TCGPlayer the data could be thrown off by just a couple of outlier leaders. It’s possible, again because the curves of the prior two sets are so similar, and that because there are 18 leaders per set, that each set would have outliers and averaging all the leaders together smooths it out.
Third, each leader is a data set unto itself. There are going to be meta viable leaders in each set that are near the top and don’t drop nearly as fast. Conversely there are some leaders that are just not very good, or were designed to be only for sealed events, and those will drop significantly faster than the average.
Secrets Projection
Given the mentioned caveats and having the historical data available, we are reasonably able to predict a near term outcome for the most recent set.
Currently feel confident that we’ll see a repeat of the type of trend line we’ve seen so far from earlier sets. Since it started a bit lower than JTL but dropped about the same from week 1 to week 2, we’d project the SEC average price dropping into the mid to high $90’s in another week or two and hold that mark for 5 weeks. The average may then move into the $80’s for another 5 weeks. Using the 5 weeks at each plateau because of the LOF times in each range being more recent and with people knowing more about the carbonite box impact on showcase prices.
The curveball of course could be the upcoming rotation of the 2024 sets out of Premier format which could drive demand of all the 2025 sets sending them all up potentially.
Right or wrong, we’ll likely be checking back in on this in a few months to see how things shape up.