Getting to Top Cut
What does it take to make the top cut at a large event?
Certainly it takes a good deck. It also takes skill in piloting that deck generally developed via practicing. You need to have a good understanding of not just your own deck but also what the other decks in the meta are going to be playing and trying to do in a game. Potentially you need a little bit of luck in getting decent matchups and of course drawing the right cards when you need them.
** If you want that stuff, then check out our prior post about Where to Start with Streamers or go to YouTube and search for SWU.
We’re not talking about any of those today. Instead we are focusing on the required math and probability that is also needed to get over the top cut threshold.
Given some number of rounds in an event if you don’t lose any matches, you are going to get into the top cut of that event. How many loses though could a play sustain and still get in?
Top Cut Calculator
Porg Depot has put together a Top Cut Calculator. This calculator will help you determine the record that you would need to get into the top cut plus the percentage chance that you are likely to get there.
All you need to do is enter the number of participants and select the number of people that would make it into the top cut of an event. The calculator will then tell you the record you would need and the percentage chance to get into that top cut.
The number of rounds is calculated automatically for you based on powers of two and the number of players. You could of course override that round value with a check box and any number you would put in.
General Outcomes
If you are undefeated in Swiss you are going to be in.
If you are X-1, you are likely going to be in unless the number of rounds is artificially low, or the number of players is incredibly high for the number of people making the top cut.
If you have two loses, you may get in, but it’s definitely not guaranteed and you may want to use this calculator tool to know what the odds are of getting in.
Quirks
There are some situations that are hard to factor into the math. People dropping from the event causing some players to get paired up or down changes the outcomes a bit. Double losses also have an impact on what it takes to get into a top cut. Tie breakers also play a part for those records that would be on the bubble.
We’re working on some of these situations and how to build them into a future version of this calculator. For now though it’s sticking to ideal scenarios for the Swiss pairing rounds.
Summary
If you are having fun playing in an event you should keep doing that and keep playing. However, if you are only concerned with getting into top 8 or top 16 depending on what the top cut and prize cuts would be for an event, this tool may help you decide if you want to keep playing or drop out early and hit the Outback Steakhouse.