Thrive or Demise?

If you are very plugged into social media for Star Wars Unlimited it is currently difficult to go more than 24 hours without seeing a post or comment about the game’s impending demise.  This was also technically posted to those same locations so apologies for feeding the beast.  

The game is in a rather healthy state at this point and rumors of its demise are more than a bit overblown.  Let’s look at some of the items that are often cited as parts of the argument by the glass half empty people. 

Product Prices

We’ve been posting weekly pricing trends for Showcase and Legendary cards for over a month now on Porg Depot.  (Check our pricing section for details.)  I also just recently added a tracking of all three sets’ total Legendary standard version prices as well.  Notably there has been a general downward trend overall.

This is far from as catastrophic as some might lead you to believe and has a number of reasonable explanations.  The initial flash of Twilight of the Republic has faded.  We’ve seen very high prices for Rares and above in the early days of each set so far.  The fact that prices have gone down overall after that initial rush is in line with the two prior sets.  

It also makes sense that as more and more packs are opened, additional copies of each individual card have the potential to hit the market which would drive down prices.  Simple supply and demand economics says that the price will go down if supply is increased and demand stays constant.  In fact, if supply goes up significantly enough, the demand could also rise and prices could still go down.

Box prices are also not a good indicator.  Spark of Rebellion had significantly less printed initially that the subsequent sets and has just undergone its first reprint.  Twilight had significantly more printed initially its initial release.  Again the same basic economic theory of price in relation to supply and demand holds true here as well so it seems John Locke was correct way back in 1691.

Event Attendance

There have been a number of posts and comments related to weekly events dropping in attendance.  During the time towards the end of the calendar year, basically between roughly mid-November (Thanksgiving time in the US) and New Year’s Eve people are generally prioritizing family and vacation.  If people are going to miss a few weeklies at their local store, it’d likely be around this time of the year.

Add in that there are very few significant events going on right now.  Store showdowns, while a few have been taking place, have not really started in full force for Twilight, and the Planetary Qualifiers are still a ways off.   We’ve already seen the yearly convention circuit wind down as well.  Plus again, due to time of the year, it’d be difficult to get a large independent event kicked off with a large population of players in December.  

Are there exceptions to some of this?  Almost certainly.  However, for the most part, the late November through December time frame is likely not going to be great for event attendance regardless of size, location, or even which game.

Also keep in mind that the large 128 person events at GenCon this past summer sold out nearly instantly. The lines for learning how to play at PAX Unplugged were long. There have also been big events hosted by Star City Games as well as some in Europe.

Track Record of FFG and Asmodee

Speaking with a friend that has been heavily into collectible card games for the better part of three decades, he does not want to take on Star Wars Unlimited as even a secondary game.  The primary reason for this is the past experience of other FFG Star Wars related games.  He cites the organized play and prizing primarily, but also that past games tend to wither away to eventually no longer be made.  Difficult to argue any of that stance.

FFG knows they are fighting against their own past.  They seem to have been relatively open and honest with the player base to this point.  Faults have been admitted and remedied on multiple occasions.  One was the participation card for the first set of Planetary Qualifiers only covering the top 64 players instead of the full 128, however this was apologized for on a live stream and remedied.  Another was the Boba Fett leader suspension which arguably could have been done sooner, but was potentially not as readily apparent earlier in the Shadows of the Galaxy season meta so the timing ultimately made sense.  Because of these and the general openness of the game designers, communication does not currently seem to be a problem.

Good Things

While the above seem to be the top complaints, concerns or fears that seem to crop up.  There are a bunch of things to also be pretty positive about.

Mechanics

The actual game mechanics have been talked about in numerous places previously.  This is a really solid game from a playing perspective.  Cards in hand, resources available, game state on the board, and even how many actions you either can or would want to take all factor into making it a very strategic game outside the bounds of simple luck of the draw.  If the mechanics of any game are not solid then it surely can wither away quickly, however this is not the case.

Healthy Meta

After the Boba Fett suspension the general game meta has become much more open and enjoyable. There are no clearly oppressive decks just dominating the field at the moment.

Intellectual Property

Star Wars.  This is one of the biggest franchises in history.  There is no shortage of content from which to draw on for characters and other types of cards.  FFG has done a really good job of blending different saga eras into each set such that there is something for fans of The Clone Wars, Rebels, Prequels, Sequels and the Original Trilogy throughout each of the first few sets.  It should be relatively easy for this trend to continue.

Early Life

The game is not even a year old yet.  The first set only released officially this past spring.  The third set not long ago at all.  We are technically still in organized play season zero.  Any complaints to date about the organized play setup should be tempered and we should remain optimistic as we move towards the first Galactic Championship and into an actual season one.

Verdict?

What will it take for the neigh sayers to come around and feel like the game is successful to a given point and has legs to run?  Does it need to be around for thirty years first, a milestone that so far one collectible card game has hit?  Does the game really need to have cards worth thousands of dollars to be considered a success?

In under a year we have Planetary Qualifiers for a season zero selling out in under a day and sometimes even faster.  TCGPlayer moved the link for Star Wars Unlimited cards from the “Other” section to their main navigation bar.  Potentially even the fact that there are so many people being vocal speaking of a downfall of the game is a good sign given Star Wars fans ability to be negative about nearly any aspect of the franchise.

Most perceived issues are likely solvable problems and many may not even be anything more than perception issues.  

Star Wars is still a relatively new game. So far it is way more on the thriving end of the spectrum.