Expected Value Calculator
This is a probabilistic estimation of card set display box expected value ranges based on daily market price data from TCGPlayer. The data provided here should only be used for informational purposes and should not be the determining factor in whether packs or boxes should be purchased.
** Note that the backend data is updated once per day.
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EV Per Pack
25th Percentile:
Median:
75th Percentile:
EV Per Box
25th Percentile:
Median:
75th Percentile:
TCGPlayer Market Value Per Box
What Percentile is Your Box?
Notes
The Expected Value (EV) calculator begins by loading a CSV file corresponding to the selected card set. The data is filtered to focus on cards with relevant rarities (Rare, Legendary, Showcase) and market prices. Prices for these cards are processed and grouped by their rarity and variant, allowing for detailed analysis.
The calculator determines the 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile of card prices within each group. Drop rates are applied to each rarity and variant. The EV for each card group is calculated by multiplying the drop rate by the corresponding price percentile.
The EV for all card groups is summed to determine the total EV per pack. This value is then scaled by the number of packs in a box (24) to calculate the total EV per box. The results include a range (low, median, and high) based on the calculated percentiles.
Additionally, the calculator identifies the market price of a booster box in the same CSV data set. This value is displayed alongside the EV results.
The "What Percentile is Your Box?" allows you to enter the value of a box you have opened and see where that falls within the range of expected values. The higher the percentile, then the better your box was.